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Apr 21, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 21, 2014

Apr 21, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 211200Z – 221200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO THE EASTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

…SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS/OK WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES E/SEWD…AS A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES PROGRESSES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AID IN A COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

…TX…
A TSTM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NW TX SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER SE OK/FAR N-CNTRL TX AT 12Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE NERN EXTENT OF SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SW…DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE ROBUST WITHIN A PLUME OF 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL TX.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON SWWD NEAR THE DRYLINE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA. WITH THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON…500 MB W/NWLYS WILL LARGELY BE WEAKENING TO AROUND 25-30 KT. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY…MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE PROBABLE WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /ESPECIALLY WITH SWRN EXTENT/.

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