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Apr 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 24, 2014

Apr 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241200Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEYS AND WRN TN VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON…AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

…SYNOPSIS…

A PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON…THEN INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MO…IL AND INDIANA…WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN…SRN LA AND S TX.

…LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY AREAS…

MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. MEANWHILE…STEEP 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F…MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. A CORRIDOR OF FOCUSED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MO AND ARKANSAS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER…STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MO…ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY NERN TX AND LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION.

DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS…BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A DOMINANT LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS…BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DOMINANT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

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