Skip to content

Apr 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 24, 2014

Apr 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241630Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE LWR OH…LWR TN…AND LWR MS VLYS…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON…WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO…LOWER TENNESSEE…AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

…SYNOPTIC SETUP…
PROGRESSIVE…MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI…DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD…AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT…FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE…AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY FRI…AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK…LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED LEE TROUGH…SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER TODAY…AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI…AS UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT…AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE AXES TO ITS EAST…WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO…AR…AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR OH…LWR TN…AND LWR MS VLYS.

…OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH…LWR TN…AND LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH TNGT…
A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY…AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT…AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME…ASSOCIATED BAND OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION…CREATING A WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED…ESPECIALLY E OF THE OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT…AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SVR STORMS…ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR…BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT…THROUGH THE AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION /REF MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/ SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT…ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER TODAY…WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F.

FARTHER E…OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO…ERN AR…AND NRN LA EWD INTO WRN KY…WRN TN…AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN…WHERE /ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS/…SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR E AS NW AL…MIDDLE TN…AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: