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Apr 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 26, 2014

Apr 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR…FAR NRN LA/NERN TX/ERN OK/SWRN MO…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS…

…SUMMARY…
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW…CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE…A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

…MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…
OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED…IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION…THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR…ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL HERE…BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT.

FARTHER S…A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN TX…MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN TX SUN NIGHT…TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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