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Apr 26, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

April 26, 2014

Apr 26, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 281200Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL MS…WRN TN…FAR NERN LA/ERN AR/NWRN AL/SWRN KY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST…

…SUMMARY…
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

…SYNOPSIS…
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 80 KT AT 500 MB/ ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND CONFLUENCE OF MS/OH RIVERS BY MON AFTERNOON. SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY…WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD OVER THE MIDWEST. COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO TX GULF COAST ON MON AFTERNOON.

…MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST…
A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE WARM FRONT IN THE MIDWEST S/SWWD TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AND PERSIST AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/MON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO MID-SOUTH…ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE-FREE AREAS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX. THIS CO-LOCATION WITH THE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE MOST CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR HIGH-END SEVERE RISK APPEARS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH. WIDESPREAD STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON…LIKELY EMANATING FROM REGENERATIVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50 KT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S…SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL…EVOLVING INTO BOWS AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

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From → Weather Blog

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