Skip to content

Apr 26, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 26, 2014

Apr 26, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AR…SRN MO…NRNLA..FAR NERN TX AND EXTREME ERN OK…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM TX/LA/MS NWD INTO NEB AND IA…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS…WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A SECONDARY THREAT AREA WILL BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. SEVERAL TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN CO INTO NEB DURING THE DAY WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE…LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE NEB/IA BORDER AT 21Z…EXTENDING SWD INTO FAR ERN OK AND ACROSS E TX WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. MEANWHILE…A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NEB INTO IA.

AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE…SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS THE IA WARM FRONT AND MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO E TX. SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

…NEB…IA…NERN KS…NWRN MO…
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLY ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT NWD MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

…ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO…
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SURGE NWD AND HEATING OCCURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PERFECTLY ORIENTED RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE…AND STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING…A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SUPERCELLS COULD FORM OVER SRN AR…NRN LA…AND NERN TX. SUPERCELLS WILL INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL…WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE…AND A HIGH RISK COULD BE ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST CORRIDOR INCREASES.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: