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Apr 27, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 27, 2014

Apr 27, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

VALID 281200Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN/LA…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH/MIDWEST TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

…SUMMARY…
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN EXTENSIVE CLOSED LOW/PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY…WHILE ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES/HIGHER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY…WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEIGHBORING MIDWEST. A COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST TX/TX GULF COAST.

…TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/ARKLAMISS…
INITIALLY…IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING…PARTICULARLY NEAR/EAST OF THE MS RIVER INTO PARTS OF THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SURFACE-BASED OR NEARLY SO AND CAPABLE OF AN EARLY DAY SEVERE THREAT. FROM THE DAY 2 PERSPECTIVE…IT SEEMS VIABLE THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY INFLUENCE /VIA OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PEAK SEVERE RISK SUBSEQUENTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE…AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING PLUME OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION VIA THE DIURNAL MAINTENANCE OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. AMPLE HEATING IN CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW-FREE AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /1500-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WITHIN AN INCREASING INHIBITION-FREE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/POTENTIAL OUTFLOW…SUCH DESTABILIZATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SABINE RIVER VICINITY OF TX/LA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MS INTO NEIGHBORING AL/TN.

AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES…STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/REINVIGORATE PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE/MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND LA INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS AFTERNOON…BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE/SPEED MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH/OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

HIGHLIGHTED BY A 75-100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX…BOTH DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE REGION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50+ KT. SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD AN EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING CORRIDOR OF STORMS…AGAIN PARTICULARLY BY MONDAY EVENING…WHICH WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE A MULTI-MODAL SCENARIO OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A NOCTURNAL TREND TOWARD HIGHLY-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINER BANDS WITH BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES. SEVERE HAIL ASIDE /AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING/…TORNADOES…INCLUDING A VIABLE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS MS/AL/TN.

…MIDWEST…
NEAR/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION…THE AIR MASS SHOULD STEADILY DESTABILIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY ELEVATED CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER. LOWER TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING…POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST-NORTHWEST AS IA IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/NARROWING WARM SECTOR. SEVERE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION…MAINLY PRIOR TO THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

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