Skip to content

Apr 27, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

April 27, 2014

Apr 27, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

VALID 291200Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

…GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES…
THE EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH/CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY…WITH AMPLE FORCING AND STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS A RELATIVELY BROAD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. THE PRIMARY FACTOR/UNCERTAINTY AGAINST A HIGHER-CALIBER SEVERE DELINEATION…SUCH AS A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK…IS THE POSSIBLE ISSUE OF EXTENSIVE EARLY DAY CONVECTION/POTENTIAL OUTFLOW ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS MS/AL. EVEN SO…AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TUESDAY AS STORMS EITHER PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND/OR REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST NEAR THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN AREAS VOID OF EXTENSIVE EARLY DAY OUTFLOW…OR AT LEAST WHERE RECOVERY CAN OCCUR…MODERATE DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES.

…MIDWEST…
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: