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Apr 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 28, 2014

Apr 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

VALID 291200Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDWEST/OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION…SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES…AND MIDWEST.

…GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES…
AN EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH/CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY…WITH AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS A RELATIVELY BROAD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION…LIKELY AS A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS…WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. AIDED BY A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED MOIST INFLUX…THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST/PROPAGATE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/PERHAPS AFTERNOON WITH A DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE.

WHILE EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE EXTENSIVENESS/OUTFLOW ARE KEY UNCERTAINTIES…IT SEEMS VIABLE THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE COLD FRONT…WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS ADEQUATELY RECOVERED/DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF IT. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/LA AND PERHAPS PARTS OF AL. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

…CAROLINAS…
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CERTAIN…AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STALLED/SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY…WITH POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT A POSSIBLE FACTOR AS WELL. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE REGION…STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK…PERHAPS ESPECIALLY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

…MIDWEST/OH VALLEY…
THE AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER…PRIMARILY WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST /50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS/…COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH…SOME OF THE STRONGEST LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO /STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/ TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

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