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Apr 28, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

April 28, 2014

Apr 28, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

VALID 301200Z – 011200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS/VA…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

…SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS TO VA…
PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PREVALENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY…WITH EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW FEATURING STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS/ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST REGARDING THE EXTENSIVENESS OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION AMID A STRONG WIND FIELD /40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/…DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK APPEARS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY…PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA.

…MIDWEST/UPPER OH VALLEY…
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE RELATIVELY NARROW AND MODESTLY MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE OCCLUSION/WEAK FRONT.

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