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Apr 28, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 28, 2014

Apr 28, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

VALID 282000Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS…AL…

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA…MS…AL…TN…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS…

…SUMMARY…
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

…PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK…
/1/ AREAS FROM CNTRL MS TO NWRN AL HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EVOLVING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL MS TO W-CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM FARTHER S WITH DIURNAL HEATING…WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF MS INTO WRN AL. WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AMIDST 200-400 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH…AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SEPARATED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS…CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF TORNADOES WARRANTING THE HIGH RISK UPGRADE. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

/2/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE TO THE MODERATE RISK TO INCLUDE MORE OF NERN LA…SRN MS…AND WRN/CNTRL AL TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE SABINE VALLEY…WITH THE GREATER SVR RISK SPREADING EWD ACROSS AL TONIGHT.

/3/ THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN KY…WRN VA…AND VICINITY FOR SVR WIND AND TORNADO RISK SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

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