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Apr 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 29, 2014

Apr 29, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 301200Z – 011200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES…CAROLINAS…AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

…SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA…
A PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THESE WINDS ALOFT…AS THEY STEADILY INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES…WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS/. THIS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT AND A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING THE EXTENSIVENESS OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER…GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD /40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/…SEVERE TSTMS SEEM PROBABLE WHERE ADEQUATE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCENTUATED BY RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA…DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…LIKELY FROM A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY SMALL SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS/BOWS. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH FL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…PERHAPS VIA THE PERSISTENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION.

…UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS…
COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW AND MODESTLY MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR…LOWER TOPPED TSTMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

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