Skip to content

Apr 29, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 29, 2014

Apr 29, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

day2probotlk_any

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 301200Z – 011200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S….

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES…CAROLINAS…AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

…MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S…

STRONGEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN HEMISPHERE OF DEEP CYCLONE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD LAKE MI AS NEAR 90KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 01/00Z. LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES TO A POSITION FROM ERN TN…SWWD TO NEAR MOBILE BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT…HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS…HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING…OR DEVELOP…ALONG THE SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC…LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO VA PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN TN/WV BY 18Z THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD THE PIEDMONT OF VA. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER THAN 6.5 C/KM AND THIS MAY LIMIT BUOYANCY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN SO…STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SEEP SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THE NRN-MOST CONVECTION.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: