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Apr 29, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 29, 2014

Apr 29, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 292000Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MS/AL VICINITY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SERN LA INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC…AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG…VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

…SERN LA/MS/AL…

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK ARE NEEDED.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT PROGRESSED INTO SERN LA HAS STALLED AND IS NOW ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN MS AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HEATS NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. 18Z SOUNDING FROM JAN APPEARS TO HAVE SAMPLED WRN FRINGES OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD EXPANDING/DEEPENING ACROSS SRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SEVERAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS WITH LIGHTNING HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THE DECAYING OUTFLOW OVER SERN LA/SWRN MS. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERS IN WAKE OF OLD MCS.

…NC…

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EVOLVING ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WW117. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH SUPERCELLS ROOTED WITHIN MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR INFLOW.

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