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Apr 30, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 29, 2014

Apr 30, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 300100Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VICINITY SSWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST — AND INTO PARTS OF GA/NC/SC/SRN VA…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. FINALLY…STORMS WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK — INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS — WILL CONTINUE FROM OHIO SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS…THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES — WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA…AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA VICINITY…INCLUDING THE RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AN POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

…SERN TN/NWRN GA SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND MS…
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN LA/SERN AND ERN MS/AL/SRN AND ERN TN ATTM…WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD — THOUGH LARGELY SUB-SEVERE — STORMS ONGOING IN A CLUSTER ACROSS FAR SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR…INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT…WITH ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE EVIDENT ACROSS ALL BUT ERN LA. THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS — AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO — WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BACKGROUND SHEAR…THREAT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

…THE ERN NC VICINITY…
A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS — INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS — PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN NC VICINITY ATTM…WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS SUPPORTING ONGOING SEVERE RISK. WHILE STORMS SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY WITH TIME…LOCAL RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS — WITH SOME WWD REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE.

…OH/ERN KY AREA…
LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OH AND SWD INTO ERN KY ATTM…WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS…POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EVIDENT. HOWEVER…WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING…EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK THROUGH LATE EVENING.

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