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May 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 3, 2014

May 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

…SYNOPSIS…
LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD…WITH TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE NWRN AND NERN STATES FLANKING A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE TO PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE…A ROUGHLY W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO LIE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE VA/NC COASTAL REGION. WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY — ROUGHLY E OF THE MS VALLEY — SHOULD MAKE GRADUAL SWD PROGRESS AS THE PARENT LOW CROSSES NEW ENGLAND AND SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT…WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT SHOULD LINGER IN A MORE QUASI-STATIONARY MANNER.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES VICINITY — PARTICULARLY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON HOURS…WITH SOME EWD SPREAD/DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE INTO THE SD VICINITY OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHEAST…SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CROSS THIS REGION.

FINALLY…SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT INVOF THE OH VALLEY…THOUGH A FEW WEAK SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN VA…A SCENARIO COULD BE ENVISIONED WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS COULD SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD AND AFFECT PARTS OF VA LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID…WITH LARGE-SCALE UVV LIKELY TO BE WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT…ANY RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.

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From → Weather Blog

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