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May 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 4, 2014

May 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE WESTERN VIRGINIAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE…WEAK STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA.

…SYNOPSIS…
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY…WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE W…ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE…HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WITH A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FROM KS INTO ERN WY. STRONG MIXING DUE TO HEATING DURING THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY LOW AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.

…ERN KY INTO WRN VA AND WV…
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVELS WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH TO THE N. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR…BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS MODEL CONSISTENCY DEPICTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN KY INTO THE WRN VIRGINIAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON…ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS CAN BE ATTAINED IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY…THEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORM…BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW.

…SRN MT…
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PROFILES BY AFTERNOON…BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR INSTABILITY. STILL…WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MT…WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SMALL SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SMALL LONG-LIVED CELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A CORE DUE TO THE FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPHS.

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