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May 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 4, 2014

May 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

VALID 051200Z – 061200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION…AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS VICINITY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM PORTION OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD…AS A DIGGING TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE W COAST STATES AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD EXPANDS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE…DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE…ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING STILL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE OTTAWA AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGHING. FARTHER E…A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST IN A NNW-SSE DIRECTION IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES…AND THEN TURNING MORE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE KS/OK VICINITY…THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…AND THEN ESEWD TO THE VA COASTAL REGION.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY EMERGE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT…AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

FARTHER E…SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN A ROUGHLY W-E BAND ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY STATES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION…LARGELY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS UNLIKELY S OF THE BOUNDARY…SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

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From → Weather Blog

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