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May 4, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 4, 2014

May 4, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

VALID 041630Z – 051200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF MAINE…AND FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE WESTERN VIRGINIAS TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. ELSEWHERE…A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM WESTERN OREGON/WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

…WESTERN OREGON/WASHINGTON…

ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE PACIFIC NW. HOWEVER…MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE IF SFC TEMPERATURES CAN WARM TO NEAR 60F. AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY REACH 300 J/KG WHICH COULD ALLOW CLOUD HEIGHTS TO REACH LEVELS NEAR 6KM…LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING DISCHARGE GIVEN 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -24C. FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED 10 PERCENT THUNDER LINE WEST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE NRN CASCADES.

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REMAIN. STRONG HEATING SHOULD REMOVE EARLY-DAY INHIBITION AND SCT WEAK CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE AFTER 21Z.

…OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS…

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL IL TO WRN VA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ERRONEOUSLY OVER MOISTEN 850MB ACROSS PARS OF THE OH VALLEY. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB DEW POINTS WILL APPROACH 12C ACROSS ECNTRL IL/WRN INDIANA BY 06Z TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST…THOUGH SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON.

…NRN NEW ENGLAND…

DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH UPPER LOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN GENERATING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ATTAIN HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTING DISCHARGE…THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

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From → Weather Blog

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