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May 4, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 4, 2014

May 4, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

VALID 051200Z – 061200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST…AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID- AND UPPER-OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN INITIALLY QUASI-ZONAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NRN CA INTO THE PAC NW…AND EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM…A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SPEED MAXIMA WILL TRAVERSE EWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CONUS…WHICH WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL.

…CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN VA…
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO SWRN VA…AHEAD OF A WEAK SPEED-MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKELY OVER-ESTIMATING THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION…AS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA. IT ALSO IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS…WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP N OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES…LOW-END SVR PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED.

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