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May 5, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 5, 2014

May 5, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2014

VALID 051200Z – 061200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM OHIO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA…BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN STATES.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN UPPER LOW WILL SINK SWD ACROSS NRN CA AND NV WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE MINIMAL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE E…WARM CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS…WHILE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

…OH SEWD INTO NC…
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INDIANA AND OH MON MORNING…DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS ZONE OF MOISTENING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO VA AND NC DURING THE DAY. DESPITE HEATING…CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT…WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WRN VA/NC. AS A RESULT OF SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT…THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY VERY SMALL HAIL AT BEST.

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From → Weather Blog

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