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May 5, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 5, 2014

May 5, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

VALID 061200Z – 071200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN AN ARCING BAND EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A STORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY POSE BRIEF SEVERE RISK…WHILE EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA VICINITY MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL. ELSEWHERE…ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TO THE CONCHO VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
ONGOING AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 2…AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. GIVEN THAT THIS TROUGHING WILL REMAIN PHASED WITH A SECOND TROUGH/LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN…A LONGITUDINALLY EXPANSIVE TROUGH WILL RESULT…RESIDING OVER MOST OF WRN NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES…WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTO A MORE CENTRALIZED LOW OVER THE KS VICINITY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND THEN SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL MARK THE SRN FRINGE OF A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION. FARTHER W…A COLD FRONTAL ADVANCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW…WITH SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

…IA/SRN MN VICINITY…
ELEVATED EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE ZONE CENTERED ON THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY…N OF A W-E WARM FRONT PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER NRN MO/SRN IA. AS A 50-PLUS KT SSWLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION…THE RESULTING INCREASE IN UVV IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL SATURATION BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. A FEW THESE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL REACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.

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