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May 5, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 5, 2014

May 5, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

VALID 051630Z – 061200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON…OVER A SMALL PART OF WEST VIRGINIA…AND NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER SMALL THREAT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION AND SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS.

…WV/VA/NC…
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN VA/NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR…WITH DAYTIME HEATING SLOWLY DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS AND LEADING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS LATER TODAY IN THE REGION. HOWEVER…FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IF ANY PERSISTENT STORMS FORM. THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

…BLACK HILLS REGION…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED…BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS.

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