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May 5, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 5, 2014

May 5, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2014

VALID 061200Z – 071200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN AN ARCING BAND EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A STORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY POSE BRIEF SEVERE RISK…WHILE EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA VICINITY MAY POSE SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE…ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NWD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

…SYNOPSIS…

SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE WRN U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES SEWD THROUGH CA AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT BASIN REGION. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY…OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NWD TO A LEE LOW IN WRN/CNTRL KS.

…UPPER MS VALLEY AREA…

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT…WHILE PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT AT EML BASE ADVECTS EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE…BUT ALSO A CAP IN WARM SECTOR. THE NWD MOISTURE SURGE WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN CAP IN WARM SECTOR…THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE WARM FRONT…BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

…SERN WY…WRN NEB AND SWRN SD…

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THIS REGION…BUT A MODEST INCREASE IN NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SFC LOW. DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT…STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE INVERTED TROUGH INTERSECTS THE E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SPREAD NEWD. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE…VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

…BIG BEND AREA NWD THROUGH NWRN TX AND WCNTRL OK…

VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY STORMS /SHOULD THEY DEVELOP/ WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS THEY MOVE EAST AND ENCOUNTER STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

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