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May 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 6, 2014

May 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014

VALID 061200Z – 071200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. TO THE E…SWLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. E OF THE RIDGE…A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES…WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING.

AT THE SURFACE…A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH WARM SLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS WY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN NEB…IA…AND IL. S OF THIS BOUNDARY…MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB DURING THE DAY…THEN FARTHER EAST AND N OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE…A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WRN VA MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

…ERN WY INTO WRN NEB/SD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING…
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK FRONT…AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A LONG HODOGRAPH DUE TO ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SWLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO OUTFLOW. CAPPING S OF I-80 WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY FOCUSED THREAT AREA FROM ERN WY INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD.

…IA AND SRN MN INTO WI LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…
IT WILL REMAIN VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER…ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH AN INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER 00Z SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTENING ALOFT TO BREAK THE CAP WITH ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT A FEW CORES COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

…SRN WV INTO WRN VA DURING THE DAY…
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA INTO NRN NC. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER…CAPPING AS WELL AS WEAK FORCING SUGGEST IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MANY STORMS. THEREFORE…WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.

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