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May 7, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 7, 2014

May 7, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

VALID 091200Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE IL/INDIANA VICINITY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX…

…SUMMARY…
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO/MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE — PARTICULARLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX…WHERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.

…SYNOPSIS…
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS PROGGED THIS PERIOD…AS CENTRAL U.S. TROUGHING IS SHUNTED NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TOWARD ERN CANADA BY DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THE RESULT WILL BE A FLATTER/MORE WLY FLOW FIELD EVOLVING OVER THE U.S. WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE…LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE NRN MN/WRN ONTARIO VICINITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE. AS THIS OCCURS…A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STATES…WHILE LINGERING ACROSS — AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER — THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AREA.

…IL/INDIANA VICINITY SWWD TO ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX…
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY…ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED — THUS COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST. WHILE LIMITED RISK FOR HAIL/WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRE-FRONTAL/ONGOING STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PEAK…SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THIS CONVECTION NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT. HERE…CAPE AVAILABILITY WITHIN THE RECOVERING AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE LOWER MI VICINITY SWWD ACROSS SRN MO/ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO TX.

THE STRONGEST BAND OF FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE ARKLATEX — AND THUS THE MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY IL/INDIANA SWWD ACROSS AR. THUS — WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN A MUCH BROADER REGION OF LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITY — TO HIGHLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

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From → Weather Blog

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