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May 8, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 8, 2014

May 8, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

VALID 101200Z – 111200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

…SYNOPSIS…
A LOW-AMPLITUDE…QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING/PROGRESSING EWD OVER THE WRN STATES. POLEWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENCOURAGED OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A HYBRID LEE TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL STATES TO THE S OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

…CNTRL OK NEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY…
A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE MID-LEVEL ISALLOHYPSIC PATTERN WILL OVERLIE THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING — A REFLECTION OF THE DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATED TO THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER…RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE — E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S — BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ESTABLISH MODERATE-STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT /1/ ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SW OK TO S-CNTRL KS…/2/ AMIDST BROAD WARM-SECTOR CONFLUENCE EXTENDING WELL S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW…AND /3/ INVOF THE FRONT MAY ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 35-45-KT H5 WLYS OFFERING MODERATE DEEP SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION…A CONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER…UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW OWING TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITING CONVECTIVE/SVR-TSTM COVERAGE.

…UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST…
SFC DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST A BROAD AREA OF LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BOLSTER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT…BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNFOCUSED AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BENEATH A BAND OF 35-KT WLY/S FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN AND EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST…THOUGH ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

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