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May 10, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 10, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 100100Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
SQUALL LINE WITH HEAVY RAIN…HAIL…AND WIND WILL SPREAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 10PM CDT. ELSEWHERE…ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID EVENING.

…DEEP SOUTH TX…

WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY AND WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TX. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BRO EXHIBITS AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS EVOLVING MCS.

…ARKLATEX…

CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LESSENING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE WDSSII MESH DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVER NERN TX/SWRN AR/NWRN LA…ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

…OH VALLEY…

SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BACK SIDE OF OLD WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTING ITSELF FROM SERN MO TOWARD NCNTRL KY AND MAY LINGER ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE SOUTH OF EAST AS FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE WEST.

FARTHER NORTH…SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES/NRN PLUME OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. WITH TIME TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

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From → Weather Blog

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