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May 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 091200Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO INDIANA…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE…ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

…SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS…

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER INTO FAR WEST TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH AN APPARENT REGION OF ASCENT NOW EVIDENT FROM SERN AZ INTO NRN MEXICO SPREADING EAST IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MODELS. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO WEST OF DEL RIO BY 21Z…ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND ELY COMPONENT FORCES MOISTURE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL TX AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S…EFFECTIVELY REMOVING THE EARLY-DAY CAP. WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SBCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

…AR TO INDIANA…

WEAKENING MCV IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOWER MS VALLEY MCS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS AR/NRN LA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBIT PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PROVE MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY MCS. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE MID-MS/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY MAY PROVE QUITE ISOLATED.

WITH 60-90M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS IL INTO NRN INDIANA THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW UNSTABLE THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME AS SFC TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SBCAPE SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE BANDS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

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