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May 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 101200Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL OK…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

…SYNOPSIS…
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z/SUN. A SEPARATE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE…A WEAK CYCLONE SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN SD SAT AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT ARCING SWD INTO ERN KS…WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WWD TO A CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. A DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND S/SWWD FROM THE FRONT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX.

…LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL OK…
POLEWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…YIELDING A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.

NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERLIE THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING…REFLECTING THE DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG MOST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS WEAK WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER…CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/ AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES /MAINLY IN MO/. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL…HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK…BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE ON WHERE STORMS WILL FORM IS TOO LOW TO YET WARRANT HIGHER INTENSITY PROBABILITIES.

…CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID-SOUTH…
ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HINDER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT AMIDST A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY…AIDING IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UNFOCUSED AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK. STILL…WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS…MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.

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