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May 9, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 111200Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

…SYNOPSIS…
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE…A LEE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE ACCELERATION OF A S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

…MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS…
PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN…WITH INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD…YIELDING A BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK…BUT MORE PROBABLE SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

FARTHER S…CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN /ESPECIALLY INVOF TRIPLE-POINT/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE INHIBITION…WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE OVERLY LARGE…CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS LOWER. EWD EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN COLD FRONT EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL WARM SECTOR INHIBITION.

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