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May 9, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 091300Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX NEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE OH VLY…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL…SOUTHERN…AND EAST TEXAS TODAY. ELSEWHERE…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

…SYNOPTIC SETUP…
LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT…S OF A BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN AB/SK. WITHIN THIS FLOW…LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TROUGH NOW ARCING FROM MN SSW INTO OK WILL CONTINUE NE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY BY EVE…AND INTO ERN ONT EARLY SAT. FARTHER W…DISTURBANCE OVER NV/UT SHOULD REACH SRN CO/NE NM THIS EVE AND THE OZARKS EARLY SAT…WHILE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO TRACKS ESE TO THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE…CLOSED LOW NOW W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS FORECAST TO DEVOLVE INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES E INTO WRN WA/ORE.

AT LWR LVLS…LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MN TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO CNTRL ONT. COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD PROGRESS E/SE INTO LWR MI…IND…AND SE MO BY EVE. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY…MEANWHILE…WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS OK TNGT/EARLY SAT AS PRESSURES ONCE AGAIN FALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS IN RESPONSE TO UPR IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM UT. THE COLD FRONT…IN CONJUNCTION WITH VORT MAXIMA IN THE MN-OK UPR TROUGH…WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

…AR TO IND TODAY/TNGT…
THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL…PRE-FRONTAL SWLY FLOW WILL PULL NEWD INTO LWR MI AND ONT TODAY AS SFC LOW NOW NEAR DULUTH CONTINUES NEWD. IN ADDITION…CLOUD DEBRIS AND LOW-LVL OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL OFFSET DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE OH VLY.

A RESIDUAL BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL NEVERTHELESS PERSIST FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO OH VLY…WITH 850 MB SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 25 KTS IN ERN AR/WRN TN TO AROUND 50 KTS INTO NRN IND/ERN MI. COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF HEATING AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT LOBES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE MN-TO-OK UPR TROUGH…SETUP COULD YIELD A CORRIDOR OR TWO FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS.

ONE SUCH CORRIDOR MAY EVOLVE OVER SRN/ERN MO AND NRN AR NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IL AND IND…WHERE SFC HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF ERN KS/NRN OK VORT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VEERED…40-60 KT 700-500 MB WSW FLOW ON SE SIDE OF VORT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. ASSOCIATED LEWPS/BOWS COULD PRODUCE DMG WIND/SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

…CNTRL/SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTN/EVE…
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD…DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SERN HALF OF TX TODAY INTO TNGT…WHERE RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WILL PREVAIL SE OF NEARLY STNRY DRY LINE AND S OF STALLING COLD FRONT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY SFC HEATING…SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY UPR IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK /AROUND 25-30 KTS/ ON SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS…BUT SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO LINES/CLUSTERS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG/. THE STORMS COULD THEREFORE YIELD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND…MAINLY LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SAT OVER S TX.

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