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May 9, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 101200Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…CNTRL PLAINS…OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

…SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY…
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE…A SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS AND MO GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F TO THE MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT…THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM ECNTRL KS EWD INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NE KS…SE NEB EWD ACROSS IA AND NRN MO DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUN FOR KANSAS CITY SHOW A DEEP MOIST LAYER BELOW 850 MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW 700 MB AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY DOMINANT SUPERCELL CLOSE TO THE MAX IN INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY CONTOUR ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION…0-3 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD…A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NERN KS…SE NEB…NRN MO AND FAR SW IA.

…OH AND TN VALLEYS…
A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC…A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z/SAT SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CELL THAT CAN INITIATE IN SPITE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION…SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. FOR THIS REASON…WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT.

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