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May 9, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 092000Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN…CNTRL AND EAST TX…

…SUMMARY…
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL…SOUTHERN AND EAST TEXAS TODAY. ELSEWHERE…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS…MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO ADD A 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY CONTOUR NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS. THIS AREA HAS THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES DUE TO CROSSOVER BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON…A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LARGER ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE THIRD CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM PARTS OF NRN IL…ERN WI AND UPPER MI WHERE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED.

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