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May 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 10, 2014

May 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 101200Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO WRN OK…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

…MID MS VALLEY TO WRN OKLAHOMA…

30-60M 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC…WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS KS/MO TO A POSITION NEAR I-70 BY 11/00Z. INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO INITIALLY ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM SWRN OK…NEWD INTO NERN KS BEFORE LATE DAY PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES RESULTS IN FLOW BACKING ACROSS KS AND THE DRYLINE RETREATING WWD.

IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION…BOTH ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALONG WARM FRONT. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. TSTMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 21Z ALONG THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHEN READINGS BREACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS MO AND THIS SHOULD PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY…LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. OTHERWISE…VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BELT…THUS A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FARTHER SW…STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AND ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION.

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