Skip to content

May 10, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 10, 2014

May 10, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

…SYNOPSIS…
A SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LATE D2 SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG A MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH E/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS…WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

…CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS…
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/MON ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A RESIDUAL EML PLUME LIKELY ACROSS UNDISTURBED PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR…DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO S TX. HOWEVER…WIND PROFILES WITH SRN EXTENT WILL BE WEAKER AND PROBABLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEER-BACK SIGNATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS…GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. ALTHOUGH STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY…SMALL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST CONVECTION WOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AND GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR BOUTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

FARTHER N FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES…WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER…EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY…ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW…WILL BROAD-BRUSH WITH LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: