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May 10, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 10, 2014

May 10, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 101300Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS…OZARKS…AND LWR M/MID MS VLYS…

…SUMMARY…
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT…ALTHOUGH TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

…SYNOPTIC SETUP…
MODERATE WLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL GIVE WAY TO STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BY EARLY SUN AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ORE AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN. IN RESPONSE…EXPECT DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER NEB AND MO TO SHEAR E/NE INTO THE WRN GRT LKS/UPR OH VLY …WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN GRT LKS…THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…AND NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SFC…ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE RCKYS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER SE CO/SW KS TNGT AND EARLY SUN. DIFFUSE FRONT NOW EXTENDING ENE FROM OK THROUGH THE OZARKS SHOULD BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND REFORM NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS KS/MO TODAY…AND THE LWR MO VLY TNGT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

…CNTRL PLNS INTO LWR MO/MID MS VLYS TODAY/TNGT…
ASCENT WITH NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEB WILL GLANCE PARTS OF ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO TODAY. UPLIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN/LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT…SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD LATE AFTN TSTMS FROM SE KS INTO WRN/NRN MO…AND PERHAPS SRN IA AND NRN OK.

WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG…40 KT WNW DEEP SHEAR…AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LVL FORCING…POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LVL WINDS REMAIN BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT. A MORE SVR CONDITIONAL ALSO WILL EXIST ALONG DRY LINE THAT BY EARLY EVE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM NEAR WICHITA INTO SW OK. FALLING SFC PRESSURES W OF THE DRY LINE SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FEATURE WILL BE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS…CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE KS/MO STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP N AND NEWD OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE ACTIVITY COULD POSE A RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND OVER PARTS OF NEB…IA…AND WRN IL EARLY SUN.

…MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTN…
SHORT LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY FORM E OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND ASCENT WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE OH VLY DESTABILIZE REGION. 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS WITH DMGG WIND.

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