Skip to content

May 10, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 10, 2014

May 10, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

day2probotlk_any

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 111200Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA…ERN NEB…NW MO AND KS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS…CNTRL PLAINS….MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

…SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY…

…MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MID MO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER…MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BY LATE AFTERNOON…NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM IA EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE NEB AND CNTRL KS. DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS…STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR…AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH MANY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/MON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM DES MOINES IA SWWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS FORECASTING MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. IN ADDITION…LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 500 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG OR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAPIDLY BECOMES FOCUSED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STORM MODE. THE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG ROTATION WITH SUPERCELLS BUT THE STORMS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN IA…SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME REMAINING DISCRETE. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR STRONG TORNADOES AT DES MOINES IA AT 00Z/MON SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING…THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES.

…SRN PLAINS…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD FROM A DRYLINE IN FAR WRN OK AND NW TX. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM CLINTON OK SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION…0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 35 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREAT THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT IN SPITE OF THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. AT THE SFC…BACKED SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BROAD MOIST SECTOR FROM SRN MS SEWD INTO IL AND WRN IND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED…INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: