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Mesoscale Discussion 547

May 10, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 547

mcd0547

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…SRN IND…KY…SWRN OH…FAR WRN WV

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101744Z – 101945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…20 PERCENT

SUMMARY…ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW…PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION…RECENT WV IMAGERY PLACES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IL WITH INCREASED LIFT DOWNSTREAM LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM S-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO NW PA.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR COVERAGE WITH A PRIMARILY MUTLICELL MODE FAVORED. A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS…BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. HOWEVER…TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASED STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH MAY END UP INCREASING THE NEED FOR A WW.

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