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May 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 11, 2014

May 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

…SYNOPSIS…
A SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z/MON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO EARLY TUE. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG A MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP N/NEWD FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH E/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.

…CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS…
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/MON ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION…ESPECIALLY WITH NWRN EXTENT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. BUT WITH A RESIDUAL EML PLUME ACROSS UNDISTURBED PORTIONS OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS…DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE OR GREATER BUOYANCY DEVELOPING FROM THE MIDWEST TO TX.

SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT…AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. HERE…LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH OWING TO THE TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES WITH RISKS FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

FARTHER N FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES…WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED STORMS…BUT GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. IN ADDITION…THE BULK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD LAG THE FRONT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR JUST MODEST SURFACE HEATING…OVERALL SETUP APPEARS TO WARRANT ONLY A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY WIND/HAIL.

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