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May 11, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 11, 2014

May 11, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 131200Z – 141200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL STATES. ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX SHOULD SHIFT NWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH INVOF SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE…PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY WED.

…CENTRAL GREAT LAKES…
MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PROBABLE INCREASE IN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK OWING TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ON D1-2 AND THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT…WITHIN A TRAILING BELT OF AROUND 35-45 KT SWLYS AT 700 MB…SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

…S TX…
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST…SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATE D2…WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ONGOING CLUSTER AT 12Z/TUE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF S TX THROUGH MIDDAY…UNFAVORABLY TIMED FOR ROBUST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. THIS WARRANTS ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND/HAIL.

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