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May 11, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 11, 2014

May 11, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 111300Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID-MS VLY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK REGION…FROM SW TX NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LKS…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF IOWA. VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WIND…AND TORNADOES WILL OCCUR.

…SYNOPTIC SETUP…
POTENT NV/UT UPR LOW/TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS EVE…BEFORE TURNING ENE AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER ERN CO EARLY MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE OH VLY/GRT LKS.

AT LWR LVLS…ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NE INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY AS CIRCULATION CENTER DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE E/NEWD TNGT AND EARLY MON AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES E INTO THE SRN HIGH PLNS.

THE COLD/STNRY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLNS LOW…AND…TO SOME EXTENT…OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SE NEB/IA…WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TNGT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL…VERY STRONG WINDS…AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY TODAY/TNGT…
SATELLITE AND MODEL FCSTS AGREE THAT WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL PREVAIL OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLNS AND THE MID-MS VLY TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM GRT BASIN TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SFC HEATING AND LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE THE MAIN DESTABILIZATION MECHANISMS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS/MCS NOW OVER SE NEB TO MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IA TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH SFC HEATING FARTHER E/SE INTO PARTS OF IL/IND.

WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS…ESPECIALLY WITH WWD EXTENT…THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES / WEAK FRONTAL SEGMENTS. IF DISCRETE STORMS DO FORM…SETUP COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND GIVEN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F/ SPREADING NWD FROM CNTRL MO.

FARTHER W…GIVEN STOUT EML CAP…EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CNTRL PLNS E AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD/STNRY FRONT WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE THROUGH MID-AFTN. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HEATING WITH FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AROUND 21Z FROM SE NEB SSW INTO SW KS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN CNTRL/SW KS INITIALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD /700 MB SPEEDS AROUND 50 KTS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT/…SETUP COULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THESE WILL POSE A RISK FOR SWATHS OF HIGH WIND…IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THESE STORMS SHOULD FURTHER CONSOLIDATE OVER CNTRL AND NRN KS THIS EVE/EARLY TNGT AS TROUGH APPROACHES REGION…FURTHER ENHANCING WIND FIELD/ASCENT. EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS IN THE MCS WILL POSE A CONTINUING RISK FOR SVR WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY MON NEWD INTO MUCH OF IA.

FARTHER NE IN NRN KS AND SE NEB/WRN IA…ENVIRONMENT OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SMALLER TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND STRONG SHEAR COULD YIELD A SIZABLE TORNADO THREAT…IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL AND WIND. THIS THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS LEFT FROM MORNING STORMS.

FARTHER S…ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW THROUGH FAR WRN OK INTO NW TX. LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS POSED BY THIS GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM IN THE REGION LATE TNGT OR…MORE LIKELY…EARLY MON AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION.

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