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May 11, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 11, 2014

May 11, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL TX…

…SUMMARY…
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA SWD ACROSS MO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR NEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUE FROM CHICAGO IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST…MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI BENEATH AN EWD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE…THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DETROIT AT 21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION…LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

..SRN PLAINS/OZARKS…
THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN OK SWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MARKEDLY BY MONDAY EVENING WHERE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE OZARKS SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH…STORMS MAY INITIATE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE RIO GRAND WHERE A FEW STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z MON FROM FORT SMITH AR SWWD TO NEAR DALLAS TX SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1200 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FURTHER SOUTH…THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR LAREDO TX AT 00Z/TUE SHOW SUBSTANTIALLY MORE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION…SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY RESULT IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF CELL INITIATION CAN OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

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