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May 11, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 11, 2014

May 11, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

VALID 112000Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB…IA…MO AND KS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY…CNTRL PLAINS…SRN PLAINS…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

A COUPLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO ADD A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SE NEB INTO WRN IA. THE LATEST 1 KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE SFC TRIPLE POINT IN WEBSTER COUNTY NEB. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SE NEB SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH CELLS TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT…CONFIDENCE IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING A 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY CONTOUR FROM FILLMORE COUNTY NEB NEWD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB TO JUST WEST OF DES MOINES IA. A LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER TORNADOES MAY OCCUR EWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN KS. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO EXPAND THE MODERATE RISK AREA SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS ECNTRL NEB WHERE TORNADO WATCH 142 IS LOCATED.

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