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May 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 12, 2014

May 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VALID 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

…UPPER/MID MS VALLEY…
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE FROM KS INTO MN/WI DURING THE PERIOD…ENHANCING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12/12Z ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF IA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL OK. THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS. HOWEVER…MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS AREA…WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EXPECTED. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS REGION.

…OK/AR/TX…
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH /2000-2500 J/KG/…BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER WEAK. MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD BE DOMINANT IN THIS ZONE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. ISOLATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ALL THE WAY TO THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE EVENING.

…LOWER MI…
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI INTO THE THUMB OF LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON…WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

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From → Weather Blog

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