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May 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 12, 2014

May 12, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VALID 131200Z – 141200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL STATES. ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX SHOULD SHIFT NWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE…PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY WED.

…CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY…
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK OWING TO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN PRIOR DAYS AND THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS…DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. WITHIN A TRAILING BELT OF 35-45 KT SWLYS AT 700 MB…A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

…S TX…
DECAYING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF E TO S TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP SWD INTO DEEP S TX THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING IN RELATION TO PEAK HEATING…SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST…BUT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

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