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May 12, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 12, 2014

May 12, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VALID 131200Z – 141200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PARTS OF S-CNTRL CANADA TO THE S-CNTRL CONUS WILL ADVANCE EWD. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT JET MAX WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO…WHILE A LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC…LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY NEAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY WILL DEVELOP NWD TO HUDSON BAY…WITH A MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD TO THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST.

…CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY…
AREAS OF DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER…ANTECEDENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST/WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION…ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR. AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX GLANCES THE AREA…H7-H5 SWLYS AROUND 35-45 KT MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

…S TX…
DECAYING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF E TO S TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND REDEVELOP SWD INTO DEEP S TX THROUGH THE DAY AS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTS PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY. HOWEVER…THE FRONT /CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED/ MAY HAVE SHIFTED S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING…POTENTIALLY LIMITING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS…THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICALLY VEERING OF THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

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