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May 12, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 12, 2014

May 12, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

day1probotlk_wind

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VALID 122000Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO TX…

…SUMMARY…
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

…PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK…
/1/ THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS TRIMMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN OHIO AND NRN INDIANA WHERE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND FOCI FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT ARE PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO LOWER MICHIGAN…WHERE A GREATER RISK FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST.

/2/ THE NRN BOUND OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM ERN MN TO NRN LOWER MI HAS BEEN EDGED SWD/SEWD OWING TO THE ANTICIPATION THAT DESTABILIZATION INTO THESE AREAS WILL BE HINDERED BY /A/ WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIPITATION…AND /B/ DEEPER FRONTAL INTRUSION EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

/3/ THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED EWD OWING TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COMPOSITE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES…W OF WHICH THE SVR RISK SHOULD BE NIL.

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