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May 13, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

VALID 130100Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IL/WI AND WESTERN LOWER MI…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST OH…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX…

…SUMMARY…
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN…AND NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. OTHER INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

…SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL…
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON…BUT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING ENSUES. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 590 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

…NORTHERN OH…
A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH…ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT IN THIS REGION…SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH DIURNAL COOLING. BUT IN THE MEANTIME…THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 592 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

…MID MS VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX…
A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IL…ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR…INTO CENTRAL TX. 00Z RAOBS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY…BUT RATHER WEAK WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER…THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT THE MAINTENANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK.

…CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX…
SEVERAL INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. OTHER STORMS ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE ARE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SAT AREA. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS REGION WILL SEE CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL AND SPREAD EASTWARD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 589 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

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