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May 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 70 KT AT 500 MB/ BECOMING CENTERED FROM NRN MS TO IL ON WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE…CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE INDUCED ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE LOWER/CNTRL OH VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

…OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST…
A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST N/NEWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ON WED MORNING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO E TX. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE ROBUST/WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION…ESPECIALLY OWING TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL…POCKETS OF GREATER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY AND YIELD A WEAK TO MODESTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. THE BULK OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LAG THE FRONT GIVEN SUCH A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION TO THE JET/TROUGH. BUT WITH CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT…LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO N/S-ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK MAY PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES DESPITE MEAGER BUOYANCY.

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